Research Brief

Photo by Senior Airman Trevor Gordnier/U.S. Air Force

The expansion of Chinese military activities and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region has led the United States to increase its own military activities in the region. This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.

Grounded in 14 case studies of reactions by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to U.S. military activities and other events in the Indo-Pacific, this brief offers U.S. military planners a framework to identify the  perceptions that are likely to cause an aggressive or escalatory  response. The authors then discuss which potential U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific region could affect the  perceptions—and thus the risk of an escalatory response.

The research team created a typology of potential short-term  responses—from least intense to most intense—in the political, economic, and military spheres. The team also considered potential longer-term  responses in each sphere. This typology summarizes the menu of response options that the  could select, depending on the  perceptions, the U.S. activity characteristics, and the broader context in which the U.S. activities are undertaken.

The authors outline the implications regarding general types of U.S. activities that could escalate tensions to various degrees, specific examples of U.S. activities that could do the same, and broader lessons for U.S. policymakers. This brief concludes with recommendations for U.S. military planners.

Photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Heather McGee/U.S. Navy

Foundation for Understanding and Anticipating  Responses

The research team based its framework on an extensive analysis of  documents, Chinese-language literature, English-language examinations of  behavior, and 14 case studies—listed in Figure 1—of recent  reactions to U.S. military activities and other events. This analysis, and the framework that arose from it, can help U.S. military planners anticipate China's likely responses to new or expanded U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The framework provides a step-by-step guide for assessing likely  responses to U.S. military activities. As noted, the framework consists of three main components:

• key perceptions that trigger Chinese responses to U.S. military activities
• key characteristics of U.S. military activities that influence China's behavior
• a typology of potential Chinese responses, organized by intensity level.

Figure 1. Case Studies of Recent  Reactions

• U.S. hypersonic weapon programs (ongoing since 2000)
• U.S. naval capabilities and the Malacca Dilemma (ongoing since 2000)
• China-Philippines Scarborough Shoal Standoff (ongoing since 2012)
• Japanese nationalization of the Senkaku Islands (2012–2016)
• Expansion of the U.S.-Vietnam defense and security ties (2013–2016)
• U.S. bomber overflights of the  (2016 and 2020)
• deployment to South Korea (ongoing since 2016)
• Chinese reactions to the Duterte administration (2016–2018)
• The reinvigoration of the Quad (ongoing since 2017)
• U.S. support for Taiwan under the Trump Administration (2018–2020)
• Strengthening of U.S.-India ties (ongoing since 2018)
• Hong Kong and the Vanguard bank disputes (2019)
• Hong Kong and the China-India border clash (2020)
• U.S.  in the Taiwan Strait (2020)