DOI
10.1007/s11024-012-9204-8
The Pumpkin or the Tiger? Michael Polanyi, Frederick Soddy, and Anticipating Emerging Technologies
论文题名译名
南瓜还是老虎？博蓝尼、弗雷德里克·索迪和对新兴技术的展望
摘要
Imagine putting together a jigsaw puzzle that works like the board game
in the movie ‘‘Jumanji’’: When you finish, whatever the puzzle portrays becomes
real. The children playing ‘‘Jumanji’’ learn to prepare for the reality that emerges
from the next throw of the dice. But how would this work for the puzzle of scientific
research? How do you prepare for unlocking the secrets of the atom, or assembling
from the bottom-up nanotechnologies with unforeseen properties – especially when
completion of such puzzles lies decades after the first scattered pieces are tentatively
assembled? In the inaugural issue of this journal, Michael Polanyi argued that
because the progress of science is unpredictable, society must only move forward
with solving the puzzle until the picture completes itself. Decades earlier, Frederick
Soddy argued that once the potential for danger reveals itself, one must reorient the
whole of one’s work to avoid it. While both scientists stake out extreme positions,
Soddy’s approach – together with the action taken by the like-minded Leo Szilard –
provides a foundation for the anticipatory governance of emerging technologies.
This paper narrates the intertwining stories of Polanyi, Soddy and Szilard, revealing
how anticipation influenced governance in the case of atomic weapons and how
Polanyi’s claim in ‘‘The Republic of Science’’ of an unpredictable and hence
ungovernable science is faulty on multiple levels.
中文摘要
“想象一下，把一块拼图拼在一起，就像棋盘游戏一样在电影《朱曼吉》中：当你完成时，无论谜题描绘的是什么真实的玩“Jumanji”的孩子们学会为即将出现的现实做准备从下一次掷骰子开始。但这将如何解决科学难题研究你如何准备解开原子的秘密，或者组装自底向上的纳米技术具有无法预见的财产，尤其是当这些谜题的完成是在第一批零散的碎片被初步发现几十年后组装？在本期刊的创刊号上，Michael Polanyi认为由于科学的进步是不可预测的，社会只能向前发展解决谜题，直到画面完成。几十年前，弗雷德里克Soddy认为，一旦潜在的危险暴露出来，就必须重新调整一个人为了避免它所做的全部工作。虽然两位科学家都指出了极端的立场，Soddy的方法——加上志同道合的Leo Szilard所采取的行动——为新兴技术的预期治理提供了基础。本文讲述了波兰尼、索迪和西拉德交织在一起的故事，揭示了在原子武器的情况下，预期如何影响治理以及如何波兰尼在《科学共和国》中声称无法治理的科学在多个层面上都存在缺陷。"
来源关键词
Michael Polanyi Frederick Soddy Anticipatory governanceEmerging technologies Atomic bomb Leo Szilard H.G. Wells
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
版权信息
© 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature.
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