DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.04.004
What does it mean when climate models agree? A case for assessing independence among general circulation models
论文题名译名
当气候模型一致时，这意味着什么？普通流通模型独立性评估案例
摘要
Climate modelers often use agreement among multiple general circulation models (GCMs)
as a source of confidence in the accuracy of model projections. However, the significance of
model agreement depends on how independent the models are from one another. The
climate science literature does not address this. GCMs are independent of, and interdependent on one another, in different ways and degrees. Addressing the issue of model
independence is crucial in explaining why agreement between models should boost confidence that their results have basis in reality.
中文摘要
气候建模师经常使用多种环流模型（GCM）之间的一致性作为模型预测准确性的信心来源。然而模型协议取决于模型之间的独立程度。这个气候科学文献并没有提到这一点。全球气候机制以不同的方式和程度相互独立和相互依存。解决模型问题独立性对于解释为什么模型之间的一致性应该增强人们对其结果有现实基础的信心至关重要。
来源关键词
ModelsPredictionClimate scienceScience policyRobustness
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
版权信息
©2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202304200000001ZK
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
