摘要
In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H.,
Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be
integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant
insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we
combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse
the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural
communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a
conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm
survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policyrelevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural
communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can
lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with
potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and
change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors
contributing to vulnerability.
中文摘要
在本系列的第一篇论文[Nelson，R.，Kokic，P.，Crimp，S.，Martin，P.，Meinke，H。，Howden，S.M.（2010年，本期）]，我们得出的结论是，危险/影响建模需要与适应能力的整体措施相结合，以提供与政策相关的深入了解脆弱性的多重和突发维度。在本文中，我们将危险/影响建模与适应性分析能力的整体衡量相结合澳大利亚农村社区易受气候变异和变化影响。生物经济模型用于模拟澳大利亚农村的暴露和敏感性社区对气候变异和变化的反应。农村生计分析被用作利用农场构建适应能力综合指数的概念框架调查数据。然后，我们展示了这种脆弱性的综合衡量方法如何为农村适应能力建设的制约因素和选择提供与政策相关的见解社区。在此过程中，我们表明，仅依靠危险/影响建模可以导致关于农村社区脆弱性的完全错误的结论有可能严重误导政策干预。我们对哪些澳大利亚农村社区易受气候变化影响进行了初步评估变化，并揭示一组复杂的相互作用的环境、经济和社会因素导致脆弱性。
