Arbitrary Impacts and Unknown Futures: The Shortcomings of Climate Impact Models
论文题名译名
任意影响和未知的未来：气候影响模型的缺陷
出版者
University of Colorado at Boulder， Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
摘要
How do we predict the impacts of climate change on ourselves and on our environment? Lost in the controversy and hype of climate change is the reality of an enormous community of scientists working on the incredibly difficult task of predicting the way in which not one, but many different and highly complex systems will behave and interact over the coming decades and centuries. For the most part, these scientists either develop, or contribute to, models. Some of these models project the way the climate may change, while others – the focus of this essay – project impacts, or the ways in which society might be affected and, in turn, react to that change.
中文摘要
我们如何预测气候变化对我们自己和环境的影响？在气候变化的争议和炒作中，一个庞大的科学家群体正在进行一项极其艰巨的任务，即预测未来几十年和几个世纪，不是一个，而是许多不同的、高度复杂的系统将如何表现和相互作用。在大多数情况下，这些科学家要么开发模型，要么为模型做出贡献。其中一些模型预测了气候变化的方式，而另一些模型——本文的重点——预测了影响，或社会可能受到影响的方式，进而对这种变化做出反应。
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
版权信息
© CIRES Center for Science and Technology Policy Research
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202304230000001ZK
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