Turning the Big Knob: An Evaluation of the use of Energy Policy to Modulate Future Climate Impacts
论文题名译名
扭转大麻烦：利用能源政策调节未来气候影响的评估
摘要
Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impacts and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasize that there are many responses under the rubric of "adaptation" that could play a much more effective role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective "action" because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario.
中文摘要
关于气候变化政策的传统观点很简单：减少温室气体排放将避免如果排放得不到控制，气候对环境和社会影响的频率和程度会增加。传统智慧的支持者广泛认为，能源政策是决策者可用于有意调节未来气候影响的主要政策工具。在这篇论文中，我们对政策制定者应该有意利用能源政策来调节未来气候影响的观点提出了质疑。该论文认为，政策制定者很可能会在不显著影响未来气候影响的情况下，对能源政策（和未来排放）做出重大改变。换言之，即使可以从理论上证明能源政策可以被有意用于调节未来的气候，其他因素也将在产生未来影响方面发挥更大的作用，并且可以说更容易受到政策变化的影响。为了说明这一结论，本文在政府间气候变化专门委员会对热带气旋的假设下进行了敏感性分析。该论文结论的一个含义是，应对极端天气事件的政策应与能源政策的考虑脱钩。这种脱钩并不是为了削弱应对气候变化或能源政策的重要性。相反，这是为了强调，在“适应”的标题下有许多应对措施，可以在减少社会易受损失方面发挥更有效的作用。这一变化的影响之一是，科学的不确定性不必阻碍有效的“行动”，因为所提出的措施在未来任何气候情景下都是有意义的。
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202304230000003ZK
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