摘要
Imagine putting together a jigsaw puzzle that works like the board game in the movie “Jumanji”: When you finish, whatever the puzzle portrays becomes real. The children playing “Jumanji” learn to prepare for the reality that emerges from the next throw of the dice. But how would this work for the puzzle of scientific research? How do you prepare for unlocking the secrets of the atom, or assembling from the bottom-up nanotechnologies with unforeseen properties – especially when completion of such puzzles lies decades after the first scattered pieces are tentatively assembled? In the inaugural issue of this journal, Michael Polanyi argued that because the progress of science is unpredictable, society must only move forward with solving the puzzle until the picture completes itself. Decades earlier, Frederick Soddy argued that once the potential for danger reveals itself, one must reorient the whole of one’s work to avoid it. While both scientists stake out extreme positions, Soddy’s approach – together with the action taken by the like-minded Leo Szilard – provides a foundation for the anticipatory governance of emerging technologies. This paper narrates the intertwining stories of Polanyi, Soddy and Szilard, revealing how anticipation influenced governance in the case of atomic weapons and how Polanyi’s claim in “The Republic of Science” of an unpredictable and hence ungovernable science is faulty on multiple levels.
中文摘要
想象一下，把一个拼图拼在一起，就像电影《朱曼吉》中的棋盘游戏一样：当你完成时，拼图所描绘的一切都变成了现实。玩“Jumanji”游戏的孩子们学会为下一次掷骰子时出现的现实做好准备。但这将如何解决科学研究的难题呢？你如何准备解开原子的秘密，或者从具有不可预见性质的自下而上的纳米技术组装——尤其是当这些谜题在第一批零散的碎片被初步组装几十年后才完成时？在这本杂志的创刊号上，Michael Polanyi认为，由于科学的进步是不可预测的，社会只能继续解决这个谜题，直到画面自己完成。几十年前，弗雷德里克·索迪（Frederick Soddy）认为，一旦潜在的危险暴露出来，就必须重新调整整个工作方向以避免它。虽然两位科学家都表明了极端的立场，但索迪的方法——以及志同道合的利奥·西拉德（Leo Szilard）所采取的行动——为新兴技术的预期治理奠定了基础。本文讲述了波兰尼、索迪和西拉德交织在一起的故事，揭示了在原子武器的情况下，预期是如何影响治理的，以及波兰尼在《科学共和国》中关于一门不可预测、因此无法治理的科学的说法在多个层面上是错误的。
