DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/016224390002500303
Ex Post Evaluation: A More Effective Role for Scientific Assessments in Environmental Policy
论文题名译名
事后评估：科学评估在环境政策中的更有效作用
摘要
Unreasonable expectations about the nature and character of scientific knowledge support the widespread political assumption that predictive scientific assessments are a necessary precursor to environmental decision making. All too often, the practical outcome of this assumption is that scientific uncertainty becomes a ready-made dodge for what is in reality just a difficult political decision. Interdisciplinary assessments necessary to address complex environmental policy issues invariably result in findings that are inherently contestable, especially when applied in the unrestrained realm of partisan politics. In this article, the authors argue that predictive scientific assessments are inherently limited in the extent to which they can guide policy development and that rigorous scientific assessments can be much more valuable in the role of ex post policy evaluation than they can in the context of ex ante policy formulation.
中文摘要
对科学知识的性质和特征的不合理期望支持了广泛的政治假设，即预测性科学评估是环境决策制定的必要前提。 很多时候，这种假设的实际结果是，科学上的不确定性成为现实中困难的政治决定的现成借口。 解决复杂的环境政策问题所必需的跨学科评估总是会产生本质上有争议的发现，尤其是当应用于不受限制的党派政治领域时。 在这篇文章中，作者认为，预测性科学评估在指导政策制定方面存在固有的局限性，并且严格的科学评估在事后政策评估中的作用比在事后政策评估中更有价值。 事前政策制定。
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202305040000012YJ
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