来源类型
Peer-journal
DOI
DOI 10.1007/s11024-011-9166-2
Prediction as an Impediment to Preparedness: Lessons from the US Hurricane and Earthquake Research Enterprises
论文题名译名
预测是防范的障碍:美国飓风和地震研究企业的经验教训
出版者
Springer
出版日期
2011
发表期刊
出版年
2011
卷号
49
页码范围
87-111
摘要
Abstract No matter one’s wealth or social position, all are subject to the threats of natural hazards. Be it fire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or drought, the reality of hazard risk is universal. In response, governments, non-profits, and the private sector all support research to study hazards. Each has a common end in mind: to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities. While this end goal is shared across hazards, the conception of how to get there can diverge considerably. The earthquake and hurricane research endeavors in the US provide an illustrative contrast. The earthquake community sets out to increase resilience through a research process that simultaneously promotes both high quality and usable – preparedness-focused - science. In order to do so, the logic suggests that research must be collaborative, responsive, and transparent. Hurricane research, by contrast, largely promotes high quality science – predictions - alone, and presumes that usability should flow from there. This process is not collaborative, responsive, or transparent. Experience suggests, however, that the latter model – hurricane research - does not prepare communities or decision makers to use the high quality science it has produced when a storm does hit. The predictions are good, but they are not used effectively. Earthquake research, on the other hand, is developed through a collaborative process that equips decision makers to know and use hazards research knowledge as soon as an earthquake hits. The contrast between the two fields suggests that earthquake research is more likely to meet the end goal of resilience than is hurricane research, and thus that communities might be more resilient to hurricanes were the model by which research is funded and conducted to change. The earthquake research experience can provide lessons for this shift. This paper employs the Public Value Mapping (PVM) framework to explore these two divergent public value logics, their end results, and opportunities for improvement.
中文摘要
摘要无论一个人的财富或社会地位如何,都会受到自然灾害的威胁。无论是火灾、洪水、飓风、地震、龙卷风还是干旱,危险风险的现实都是普遍的。作为回应,政府、非营利组织和私营部门都支持研究危害。每一个都有一个共同的目的:提高弱势社区的复原力。虽然这一最终目标在各种危险中是共同的,但如何实现这一目标的概念可能会有很大的分歧。美国的地震和飓风研究工作提供了一个例证性的对比。地震界开始通过一个研究过程来提高抵御能力,同时促进高质量和可用的——以备灾为重点的——科学。为了做到这一点,逻辑表明研究必须是协作的、反应迅速的和透明的。相比之下,飓风研究在很大程度上只提倡高质量的科学——预测,并认为可用性应该
NSTL主题领域
能源、气候与环境
NSTL智库专题
灾害管理
NSTL分类号
39 ; 12
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
版权信息
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
版权年
2011
获取方式
开放
NSTL资源类型
期刊论文
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202305220000035JL
加工单位 processInst
入库编号
CJ20230609JA000189

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